The Detroit Lions face the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday for the NFC Championship and a place at Super Bowl 58. It is the biggest Lions game of the 21st century. The 49ers are an excellent team. This is San Francisco’s third consecutive NFC Championship game. They are the experienced side and open as seven-point favorites.
But the Lions will not fear the 49ers. Dan Campbell’s team will ride a tidal wave of emotion, confidence and self-belief into Levi’s Stadium. The Lions are one win away from a maiden Super Bowl appearance. It will not be easy. However, the Lions can leave Santa Clara with a golden Super Bowl ticket. Here is how.
Take away the 49er Run Game
The 49ers’ main threat on offense is Christian McCaffrey. The superstar back is top-ten in EPA per rush, Total EPA, explosive play rate and success rate. He is the 49ers’ engine. Running the ball is the critical tentpole of Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Head coach Dan Campbell outlined the threat at his midweek press conference:
“Stop the run. You’ve got to stop the run. Because if you don’t, they’ll (San Francisco) rush for 250 (yards) on you, and they won’t even worry about passing. Everything has to start there, and yes they are (the most explosive offense). [Kyle] Shanahan does an unbelievable job. He’s going to work one side and make you overreact, and then he counters off of it, and then he plays passes off of it and works the middle of the field.”
The 49ers are 6-1 in games where McCaffrey has rushed for over 100 yards. However, in the two games where McCaffrey rushed for less than 50 yards, the 49ers went 0-2. The Minnesota Vikings held McCaffrey to 45 yards on 15 carries. It was an exceptional effort from Brian Flores’ defense.
Luckily, the Lions’ run-defense is a solid unit. In likely rushing situations, the Lions are fifth in EPA-per-rush and tenth in defensive success rate. Moreover, the Lions are among the best run-defenses the 49ers will have seen all season.
Detroit’s front seven have consistently triggered downhill and shackled running backs successfully. The critical wrinkle the 49ers will present is their 21 personnel packages with influential fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
Juszczyk is one of the best blockers in the NFL. He crashes upfield and clears lanes for McCaffrey. This is especially true on runs to the left. The 49ers love running behind Trent Williams. He will win the initial contact, allowing Juszczyk to climb, which allows McCaffrey to hit the next levels untouched and at high speed.
The Lions must win up front. Detroit’s front seven must play the games of their lives. The 49ers are a ferocious run-blocking team—they savage opponents in the tackle box. Detroit must shed blocks quickly, wrap up runners, and not allow the motions and checks to confuse them. It will be about flying fast to the football and hitting the 49ers in the backfield.
Run The Ball
In the Divisional Round, Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones rushed for over 100 yards on 18 carries. The veteran running back gashed San Francisco. For the season, the 49ers ranked 27th in defensive EPA per rush. They finished 15th in run defense DVOA and 24th in success rate.
As ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky highlighted, Green Bay destroyed San Francisco on pin-pull run concepts. Pin-pull concepts require athletic offensive linemen and willing skill-position blockers. The Lions tick the offensive linemen box. Penei Sewell is good enough to pull across the formation and create blocks. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has also demonstrated solid blocking ability on pin-pull plays and wham blocks.
If the @Lions win it’ll be in large part because of 👇🏼
PIN-PULL#nfllive pic.twitter.com/FyjITZozm8
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) January 24, 2024
If you cast your mind back to opening night, LaPorta nailed a wham block on a Chiefs defender. David Montgomery duly ran through the hole for a touchdown.
The Lions boast two outstanding runners. Montgomery is the power back. He bowls through contact and churns out extra yardage. Jahmyr Gibbs is just getting better and better. In the Divisional Round, Gibbs was at his explosive best.
Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 74 yards and a TD on 9 carries, generating a 88.9% rushing success rate against Tampa, the 3rd-highest rate in a game by a RB since 2018 (min. 9 carries).
Gibbs also averaged a season-high 6.1 rush yards after contact per carry.#TBvsDET | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/pM5K3O2J91
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 21, 2024
If the Lions can unleash Montgomery and Gibbs, it could unlock everything on offense. Not only will it create play-action chances, but it could also hold San Francisco’s fierce pass rush.
The Lions can pierce San Francisco’s run-defense. And they have the X-Factors capable of then puncturing the 49ers. It all starts with running the ball.
Just Get a Hold of ‘Em
Dan Campbell’s opening Hard Knocks speech was legendary. In it, Campbell spoke about getting a hold of teams and dragging them into the deep, dark abyss.
As much as this game is about Xs and Os, mentality and psychology also play a significant role. This is San Francisco’s fourth NFC Championship game in the last five years. They have played in and lost a Super Bowl.
Two years ago, the 49ers dropped a Matthew Stafford interception. That went a long way to deciding that particular NFC Championship game. Last season, the Niners did not get a real chance due to Brock Purdy’s injury.
The 49ers are in their championship window. And the pressure is all on them. If the Lions can just get a hold of the Niners and drag this game into the late stages of the fourth quarter, Detroit might just shock the world.
For the 49ers, losing is an unthinkable option. The Lions need to confront them with that option in the fourth quarter. Kyle Shanahan’s teams have experienced emotional playoff losses in the past.
The Detroit Lions need to stay the course and stay in the game. They can never let the 49ers out of sight. And eventually, they might be the last ones standing.