The Detroit Lions are back in action on Sunday afternoon. After defeating the LA Rams last Sunday night, the Lions now host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. Dan Campbell’s Lions are one win away from the NFC Championship game. But this game against Tampa will be challenging.
The Lions triumphed in Tampa earlier this season. However, the Bucs are a better team now. Nonetheless, the Lions are home favourites. Here are Detroit’s keys to victory in this game.
Beat the Blitz
The blitz is Todd Bowles’ defensive identity. On Monday night, Tampa blitzed a whopping 69.2% of the time. Their blitzes overwhelmed the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive line and quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Rex Ryan highlighted that teams use blitzes to confuse protections. Jalen Hurts and Jason Kelce failed to change their protections, and all hell broke loose.
Luckily, the Lions’ starting offensive line is fit, and Jared Goff has more experience and is more knowledgeable about going through his checks, changing protections and identifying blitzing defenders.
Teams have blitzed Goff at the third-highest rate this season. He has thrown 1,885 yards, 13 touchdowns and one interception. In the Week 6 game at Tampa, Goff completed ten passes for 171 yards and threw two touchdowns. Moreover, the Lions’ offense faced a blitzing defense two weeks ago. In Week 18, the Minnesota Vikings blitzed on 78.8% of snaps. Goff torched Minnesota’s defense; he completed 18 passes for over 200 yards and threw two touchdowns.
The Vikings blitzed Jared Goff on 26 of 33 dropbacks, the 4th-highest blitz rate in a game since 2018 (78.8%). Goff completed 18 of 26 against the blitz for 259 yards and 2 TDs.
Goff leads the NFL with 1,623 yards against the blitz this season.#MINvsDET | #OnePride pic.twitter.com/JM8z55eAsf
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 7, 2024
Goff and the Lions’ offense have defeated blitzing defenses throughout the season. They must do it again. If the Lions can beat the blitz, it will force Bowles and the Bucs to find different ways of creating pressure. Taking away Tampa’s best threat is critical to winning this game. Tampa’s defense finished 25th in pass-EPA. The Lions can attack them.
Nothing Deep
Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans combined for seven deep touchdowns during the regular season. That was good enough for second overall. Evans is an outstanding wideout. He is a complete player, a skilful route runner, adept at contested catches and an explosive playmaker. Evans is a phenom, and he destroys single-high man coverage defenses.
In the first game, Mayfield missed a few big plays. There were opportunities for Tampa in that game.
How DEEP will the Buccaneers go in the #NFLPlayoffs?🧐 pic.twitter.com/DsYy9ckRmg
— NFL GameDay (@NFLGameDay) January 10, 2024
Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn is familiar with this Tampa offense. Glenn saw them twice a season when he was in New Orleans. The Lions are prone to surrendering big plays. They are in the bottom 12 in explosive plays allowed.
However, Brian Branch did not play in the first game. Neither did CJ Gardner-Johnson and Ifeatu Melifonwu. The Lions’ secondary is more competitive now than it was mid-season.
Establish the Run
David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both missed the Week 6 game at Tampa. The Lions struggled to run the ball. Thankfully, Goff won the game with his arm. Nevertheless, the Lions’ identity and offensive playbook open up when they run the ball.
David Montgomery finished fifth overall in rushing success rate and ranked 13th in yards after contact. He is the Lions’ bowling ball running back. Montgomery gets downhill quickly and churns through contact, creating extra yards.
Gibbs is the explosive, potential home-run hitter. He is third in explosive play rate and eighth in yards after contact. Detroit failed to run the ball well in the second half against LA. Tampa’s stout defensive front and run-fitting linebackers will make it difficult for the Lions in this game. However, the Lions must find a way to keep Tampa off balance. Using Montgomery and Gibbs more evenly should stop Tampa from finding a game plan and rhythm against certain run looks.
The Lions’ backfield is devastatingly good. If they can unleash these two, they could unlock victory. Detroit cannot afford to settle on one back or become predictable in their called run plays. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson confirmed this in his press conference:
“We are still built on the run, though. I think our guys up front relish the opportunity to do that, and we’ve got really good backs that we need to get the ball, so hopefully, we can have a little more success than the first go around.”