The Detroit Lions bookend Super Wildcard Sunday with their game against the LA Rams. It is Ford Field’s first playoff game, and the homecoming party will see a friend turned foe return to the Lions’ Den.
Here’s the headline: the 12-5 Detroit Lions host the 10-7 LA Rams. Matthew Stafford is back. Jared Goff reunites with Sean McVay. But none of those headlines come close to this one; this is the Detroit Lions’ biggest game in 30 years. The Honolulu Blues have entered uncharted territory. These aren’t the Lions of your childhood.
But the Rams are an excellent team. They will challenge Detroit. However, the Lions are a good team too. They will challenge the Rams. And they might win. Here are three keys for the Lions on Sunday.
Get After Matthew Stafford
The Lions’ secondary ranks 26th in EPA over the last six weeks. Detroit’s secondary is not good enough to contain Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. If those two wideouts get opportunities, they will make big plays. The only way to stop it? Get after the quarterback.
Throughout Sean McVay’s tenure, he has witnessed offensive game plans wrecked by defenses that got after his quarterback. The New England Patriots did it at Super Bowl 53. The Miami Dolphins did it a season later, while the San Francisco 49ers have routinely destroyed LA at the line of scrimmage.
If Stafford has time and clean pockets, he will dissect the Lions. Detroit has no option but to hurry, hit and harass Stafford. The Lions’ front four must win their matchups and finish on Stafford. Unlike mobile quarterbacks, Stafford is a big target. He will stay in the pocket and take the hit. The Lions must create opportunities and then take them.
Moreover, the Lions have another tool in their toolbox. In the second half of the season, Detroit is the 4th-most blitzing team. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn has found a pressure-generating formula. The Lions have strong triggermen in Brian Branch, Ifeatu Melifonwu, Alex Anzalone, and Derrick Barnes. All four are adept at flying downhill and blitzing through gaps.
This season, Stafford ranks 27th in QBR against the blitz. Wink Martindale’s blitzing Giants team sacked Stafford four times, registered eight quarterback hits and forced two interceptions.
Punishing Stafford is the ultimate key to victory. And the Lions must do it relentlessly.
Contain Kyren Williams
While the Lions’ pass defense is a weakness, they have played excellently against the run in 2023. The Lions are first in run-defense DVOA. Detroit’s linemen shoot gaps with discipline, and the linebackers flow to the ball excellently.
But in Kyren Williams, the Rams have a ferocious running back. He is an explosive, rapid runner with solid contact balance. Williams finished third in EPA per rush, third in success rate and ninth in yards-after-contact.
LA runs the ball solidly on gap and duo concepts. They run the ball over 40% of the time. Williams is adept at bursting through running lanes and ripping off big plays. Sean McVay’s offense operates at full flight when they can run the ball. The Rams are a top-ten offense in success rate when Williams rushes over 100 yards. Detroit must take Williams’ threat away.
In particular, Benito Jones, Alim McNeill, and Josh Paschal must clog running lanes and nail their tackles. Getting early contact is critical; the Lions cannot fall off tackles. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn stressed this at his midweek press conference:
“Williams is tough. He’s powerful. He has this effective stiff arm, and we’ve got to understand that. So, we have to make sure that we wrap up and have population to the ball with this player.”
Special Teams
The Rams are the 32nd-ranked team in special teams DVOA. They are the worst special teams unit in the NFL. Special teams could decide this game. The Rams cut kicker Brett Maher earlier in the season and then went back to him after they moved on from Lucas Havrisik.
Furthermore, Maher experienced a meltdown in last season’s Monday night wildcard game. Maher’s kicking is a sizable concern.
The Lions will be without elite returner Kalif Raymond. The speedy wideout is one of the best returners in the NFL, and the Lions will miss him. Maurice Alexander and Donovan Peoples-Jones are in line to take over.
Detroit requires solid returns from their returners. And lastly, Jack Fox’s boot is a certified weapon. Can he nail his punts and force LA deep into their territory? Complementary football wins playoff games, and special teams are the bedrock.