The NFC North champion Detroit Lions travel to Texas on Saturday night for a game against the Dallas Cowboys. The Lions are riding high after winning the division in Week 16, while the Cowboys will be desperate to return to winning ways after losing the last two games.
Despite winning the division last Sunday, the Lions still have lots to play for; they have a legitimate shot at landing either the number one or two seed in the NFC. But winning in Dallas is difficult; the Cowboys have won 15 consecutive home games.
However, the Lions are 5-0 in primetime. They have relished playing spoiler in several away games over the last two seasons. Here are three keys to victory if they wish to add a sixth primetime win.
Run the Ball
Dallas’ defensive weakness is their run defense. Due to Dan Quinn’s 4-2-5 defense emphasizing speed and hybrid abilities at the linebacker and safety positions, Dallas is vulnerable. The Buffalo Bills evidenced that in their Week 15 win over Dallas. In that game, Buffalo amassed 266 rushing yards.
The Bills overwhelmed Dallas’ defensive levels with weight, power and pulling runs. For the season, Dallas ranks 31st in defensive EPA per rush against single-back formations. The Lions can attack them.
Conversely, Detroit is ninth in EPA per rush from single-back formations and fifth in EPA per rush from I-formations. Moreover, the Lions have two very destructive and different backs. Jahmyr Gibbs is the explosive play waiting to happen. He is capable of ruining defenses with his speed, footwork and contact balance. David Montgomery is the battering ram; he rumbles forward and churns through contact for extra yardage.
Lastly, the Lions’ offensive line is one of the best at getting up field and clearing rushing lanes. The Bills did this excellently. If the Lions can do the same, opportunities to run the ball and negate Dallas’ tough pass defense should be available.
Quarterback Jared Goff praised Montgomery and Gibbs ahead of this game:
“They’re both starting backs in this league for really any team. To have them both on the same team, to have them both be able to complement each other so well, it makes us dangerous.”
Play With the Lead and Attack Dallas’ Man Coverage
In their home games this season, the Cowboys have trailed an opponent just once. Dallas’ fast starts at home have allowed them to bury opponents. Playing with a lead lets the Cowboys’ defense play from a position of strength; their secondary is excellent at creating turnover opportunities, and it creates more chances for Dallas to rush the passer when the opponent gets into a dropback passing game.
The Lions cannot allow that to happen. Detroit must start quickly, build a lead and take Dallas out of their game script. Jared Goff’s QBR on passes thrown under 2.5 seconds is seventh. His QBR against man coverage is 75. The Cowboys play more man coverage than anyone else in the NFL.
If the Lions can lead early and use the run game to stay balanced, they own specific strengths that can cause Dallas problems. Dallas’ defensive strength comes from playing with leads and forcing opponents into obvious passing situations. Detroit cannot afford a slow start or an ill-disciplined start.
Silence CeeDee Lamb
CeeDee Lamb is one of the NFL’s best, most versatile offensive players. He can line up in the slot, at the X or even in the backfield. Lamb is Dallas’ ace card. Justin Jefferson enjoyed a stellar day against the Lions last week, and Lamb will be eyeing Detroit’s inconsistent secondary.
Whether it is a mix of man and zone coverage, capped safety help or bracket coverages, Detroit cannot let Lamb take control of this game. The Lions must balance out their blitzing strategy with discipline. Lamb is first among wide receivers for total EPA. He is enjoying a superb season. Defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn put it succinctly when explaining how to defend against elite wideouts:
“What we do is we go back to the drawing board, make sure we finish those plays, especially when you’re in position to make those plays. We were in position to make a lot of those plays and we went against a damn good player, and he made those plays.”