Tonight, the Detroit Lions welcome the Washington Commanders to Ford Field for a playoff game in the NFL Divisional Round.
The NFC’s number-one seeds return to action after their Wildcard Weekend bye. The winner will progress to the NFC Championship.
If that is the Lions, Detroit will host its first NFC Championship game at Ford Field. But the Commanders roll into Detroit, surging with momentum and belief.
The Commanders are this year’s Cinderella story. And if the Detroit Lions are to end that story, this is what they must do.
Play Detroit-Style Bully Ball on Offense
Per FTN, the Washington Commanders rank 26th in run-defense DVOA. Washington is 28th in average yards per contact and 31st in explosive run rate.
Furthermore, for the season, the Commanders are 25th in stacked box rate.
Dan Quinn likes his defense to feature lighter bodies and set up to defend the pass as he did in Dallas. That makes his defense susceptible to the run.
Perhaps no game illustrated that better than when the Dallas Cowboys visited the Buffalo Bills last season.
Infamously, the Bills threw the ball eight times as their fierce run-game pounded Quinn’s Cowboys into oblivion.
The Detroit Lions must establish their run game and impose their will on Washington’s defense. It is non-negotiable.
David Montgomery’s return will undoubtedly help in short-yardage and power situations, but the onus will likely be on Jahmyr Gibbs.
Gibbs dominated the Week 18 matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, and ‘Sonic’ should be ready to go after a week off.
Per Aaron Schatz, Gibbs’ 2024 season was the best in DYAR amongst all Lions Running Backs.
Moreover, the Commanders may have another weakness that the Lions can target.
Washington tends to play nickel against 12 personnel.
Can Detroit use Brock Wright in various alignments to help crack open the run game?
Across the regular season, the Lions ranked first, averaging 6.8 yards per carry when using 12 personnel.
The Lions have the right blend of physicality, pace and versatility in the run game. It has to be on full show tonight.
The inside runs, the stretch run plays, the wham blocks, the gap runs, and the duo runs must be on the menu. Detroit’s run game is at its best when it is diverse.
Communicate Amidst the Chaos
Tonight is only the third Lions playoff game in Ford Field history. The noise must match and improve the noise from last year’s playoff games.
Detroit’s official X account posted the decibel noise from last year, asking if Lions fans can top it this year.
Lions fans may create a cavalcade of noise that reverberates around Ford Field. And if that happens, Detroit’s defensive communication must be on point.
The Commanders love to go no-huddle and keep the defense off balance, forcing the defense to communicate quickly and effectively.
Washington can also present many different formations from the same personnel group when they go no-huddle.
Their offense is not the same vanilla offense that Kliff Kingsbury ran with the Arizona Cardinals. Washington’s offense puts defenders in conflict, forcing them to make quick decisions.
Whether it’s blitzing the Linebacker or adjusting the rush plan, Detroit’s key communicators must have a big game. Alex Anzalone and Brian Branch will have to be spot-on.
Washington wants to cause confusion and generate big plays.
Playoff games can come down to the finest margins, and communication and how the defense manages itself on the field will be critical.
Walk the Tightrope
The Detroit Lions will blitz Jayden Daniels.
Per PFF, Aaron Glenn called Cover 0 blitzes at 23.1% of the time against the Vikings.
Detroit will send the house in an attempt to rattle Jayden Daniels. But that comes with danger. Daniels’ numbers are better against the blitz this year than when he is not blitzed.
Moreover, if the Lions call Cover 0, they will leave their Cornerbacks one-on-one with no deep help.
The Commanders like to call deep shots when presented with a one-on-one look, and Jayden Daniels’ numbers on go-routes are exceptional.
Daniels generated a league-best +42.5 EPA on go-routes, throwing nine touchdowns and no interceptions.
Furthermore, the Commanders sport one of the best wide receivers in one-on-one situations.
Terry McLaurin is a gritty, physical, hard-nosed wideout who is excellent at fighting through contact and tracking the ball.
Detroit’s Cornerbacks like to play a physical game and get handsy with receivers at the line of scrimmage.
Amik Robertson and Terrion Arnold must play a gritty but disciplined game.
Referee Ron Torbet’s crew throws flags at the third-highest rate, and DPI penalties will hurt Detroit.
Somehow, the Lions have to balance physicality and aggression against Washington’s wideouts without committing penalties.