The Detroit Lions return home to Ford Field on Saturday night. The Lions sport several wounds following their 28-13 loss to the Chicago Bears in Week 14. Dan Campbell’s 9-4 Lions host the 7-6 Denver Broncos. The Lions will be hungry to win in front of their home fans and edge closer to the NFC North title.
However, the Broncos will make life difficult. The Broncos are in rich form; they are 4-1 since their bye week and are firmly in the fight for a playoff spot. Here are three keys to victory for the Lions in this big game.
Do Not Lose the Turnover Battle
Losing turnover battles often means a team will lose the game. The Lions turned the ball over thrice last Sunday, including a back-breaking fumble on a botched exchange between Graham Glasgow and Jared Goff. In the previous three games, turnovers have plagued the Lions. They cannot continue to turn the ball over against Denver.
The Broncos lead the league in total takeaways. They have 24, and they are sixth overall in turnover differential. Denver has a knack for creating turnover opportunities—their athletic defense rallies to loose footballs.
The Lions cannot afford to give the ball away and force their defense in short-leverage situations. That will be a recipe for defeat.
Offensive Line Must Win Their Matchups
Nick Baumgardner of The Athletic (subscription required) labelled the Lions’ offensive line as the engine under the hood. That engine has spluttered in recent weeks. On Thanksgiving, Green Bay recorded three sacks, and multiple pressures throughout the game. Goff faced heavy pressure, leading to his fumbles when trying to scramble. Against New Orleans, the Lions failed to record over 50 rushing yards in the second and third quarters combined. Lastly, the Bears recorded four sacks on Goff in Week 14.
That is a brutal stretch of football for Detroit’s best unit. Per Pro Football Focus, Goff is responsible for just four total sacks this season. Moreover, teams have sacked Goff 15 times in the last seven games. Those stats are worrying, given that Goff is one of the better quarterbacks at releasing the ball quickly.
Denver’s pass rush is athletic, with plenty of speed. Detroit’s starting five must be at their best. Fortunately, the Lions have had some good news this week. Frank Ragnow participated fully in Friday’s practice session, and the Lions have not ruled him out. Taylor Decker also fully attended on Friday. Therefore, the Lions could trot out their starting five linemen of Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Glasgow and Sewell for the first time in several weeks.
Those five must play their best in pass protection and the run game. Detroit’s run game has stuttered in recent weeks; they have endured spells of running the ball explosively before going through periods of comatose football.
In the third quarter against Chicago, Chicago pushed Detroit’s offensive line off the line of scrimmage and into the backfield. Denver ranks 22nd in rush defense EPA. They are vulnerable on early downs, especially in Nickel and Dime formations. The Lions’ engine must start revving again.
Limit Explosive Offensive Plays
Russell Wilson has the lowest number of targeted passes in the intermediate section of the field. The Broncos seldom attack 10-20 yards downfield. They are an offense built on quick passes around the line of scrimmage, with shot plays or explosive attempts weaved into the playbook. Per Next Gen Stats, Russell Wilson’s aggressiveness rating is just 10.8. That ranks among the lowest for all quarterbacks.
However, Wilson is still capable of creating big, explosive downfield passes. Wideout Courtland Sutton is riding a five-game streak of at least one +30-yard reception. Detroit’s defense is prone to giving up explosive pass plays, especially over the last few games. Communication and concentration will be critical.
The Broncos’ offense gets its juice from a handful of successful explosive plays. Detroit’s secondary must take that away. The matchups between Cam Sutton, Jerry Jacobs/Kindle Vindlor, Jerry Jeudy, and Courtland Sutton could decide this game.