The Detroit Lions hit the road for Week 12, travelling to Indiana to face the 5-6 Indianapolis Colts. The Lions enjoyed a dominant victory over an AFC South team last week but will undoubtedly face a more formidable challenge this week.
The Colts earned a deserved 28-27 win over the New York Jets in Week 11. Quarterback Anthony Richardson played the best game of his burgeoning career.
With Thanksgiving around the corner and divisional matchups against the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers on the docket, the Lions could overlook this game. But they cannot afford to look past any opponent. If they are to win, here are the critical keys they require.
Unleash Amon Ra St. Brown
According to Pro Football Focus, the Colts play zone coverage at the second-highest rate in the NFL. Lions star Amon Ra St. Brown is fifth among NFL pass-catchers against zone coverage. Mix that with Jared Goff’s ability to find soft areas in zone coverage, and the Lions have a potentially favourable matchup here.
Before the season, Field Vision Sports ranked Goff as a top-seven threat against zone coverage. The veteran’s accuracy and timing are critical to that success.
Furthermore, if Goff can find St. Brown in those soft spots, it could create more YAC opportunities. Add St. Brown’s versatility, and Ben Johnson could create favourable matchups through alignment and formation.
The USC product is in the top ten in EPA per target when lined up outside and is elite when lined up in the slot. We know Goff loves to rip in-breaking throws against zone coverage to his favourite target. If the Lions can unleash number 14, it will certainly help their chances of winning.
Stop the Run and Rattle Anthony Richardson
The Colts called 35 run plays against the New York Jets, a clear indication that they wanted to establish the run. With Jonathan Taylor in the backfield, this makes logical sense, even more so when one considers Anthony Richardson’s rushing ability. However, the Colts have still toiled in trying to establish the run. Jonathan Taylor has the lowest success rate among running backs per Next Gen Stats, with a minimum of 100 carries.
The Lions’ defensive front and linebackers must prevent Indianapolis from establishing the run. Detroit prides itself on stopping the run game. With a patchwork offensive line in front of them, Alim McNeil, DJ Reader, Josh Paschal, Z’Darius Smith, and company must attack with discipline and power to nullify Indy’s ground game.
If the Lions can take the run game away, it will force more pressure on Anthony Richardson. Aaron Glenn’s unit must rattle the youngster with potential designed and delayed blitzes that could confuse Indianapolis’ offensive line and quarterback. Forcing Richardson to communicate, check and communicate, change protections and continue to second-guess himself.
Play With the Right Attitude
This matchup has all the warning signs screaming ‘TRAP GAME.’ A road trip to a .500 team four days before a Thanksgiving game against a divisional rival could cause the Lions problems. Many teams would have one eye on Thanksgiving, and the Colts are known for their yearly upsets. The Kansas City Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers have all fallen to the Colts in recent seasons.
Despite their flaws, the Colts possess a high level of talent in various positions, which makes them dangerous. That is why the Lions must refrain from entertaining any thoughts that this will be easy. The Cleveland Browns’ Thursday night upset win over the Pittsburgh Steelers underlined that there are no easy victories.