After winning a thrilling 41-38 game in LA, the Detroit Lions return home for a pivotal seven-day stretch. Thanksgiving week sees the Lions play two successive home games. Dan Campbell’s team will host the Green Bay Packers on Thursday, but before that, they will take on the Chicago Bears on Sunday.
The Lions are 7-2, inching closer to a maiden NFC North title. The Bears are 3-7, trending toward another lost season. But divisional games are always challenging in the NFL. The Detroit Lions must be on their A-game to handle business and kick off the holiday week with a win. Here are three keys to victory for this game.
Start Fast
The Lions have made fast starts in their home games this season. They are averaging 17.7 points in the first half of games at Ford Field. They have never trailed into halftime in any of their home games. Starting quickly on offense and forcing Chicago to chase the game could see the Bears abandon the run game.
Justin Fields last started an NFL game on October 15th, and the Bears will hope to protect him and ease him into the game. If the Lions start quickly and build a lead, the pressure will shift towards Fields and his throwing ability – forcing Chicago out of its scripted running game and into a dropback passing game could be critical. Fields is 23rd overall in EPA per dropback. Chicago’s offense is not potent enough to chase games. Start quickly, and the Detroit Lions could bury the Bears by halftime.
Stay Explosive on Offense
The Detroit Lions’ calling card on offense is their explosive play ability. Per Sumer Sports, the Lions are 3rd in explosive play rate. Irrespective of personnel or formation, the Lions’ offense can hit home runs and triples at a high rate. Last week, the Detroit Lions underlined this with several explosive plays.
David Montgomery’s 75-yard touchdown run saw the Lions hit a home run despite being in the wrong formation for the called play. Quarterback Jared Goff checked in to a different play, and the Lions hit paydirt seconds later. The Lions also hit explosive pass plays to Amon Ra St. Brown, Brock Wright and Kalif Raymond. Coordinator Ben Johnson and Goff’s mastery of this offense is peerless.
Furthermore, the Bears have allowed explosive plays at the 5th-highest rate. Their anemic pass rush boasts a rock-bottom sack percentage of 3.42%, and their pass defense ranks 26th overall. Pair that with Jared Goff playing the best football of his career, and the myriad ways the Lions can generate offensive plays, and the odds favor the Honolulu Blues.
Cut Off Justin Fields’ Rushing
When the Detroit Lions played the Bears last season in Chicago, Justin Fields feasted against an out-matched Lions defense. In the Lions’ 31-30 victory at Soldier Field, Fields amassed 147 rushing yards on 13 carries and scored two rushing touchdowns. The Lions have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and it is something they must key in on in this game. Fields is 3rd overall in scramble percentage, and the Bears will have designed runs dialled up.
The Lions’ defensive front must play with discipline and high-level containment skills. They are often an undisciplined group and can lose control when rushing four. Detroit did find an answer in the corresponding game at Ford Field last season. Nonetheless, they are still erratic and inconsistent. Lamar Jackson sometimes broke contain against the Lions, while Justin Herbert moved around and extended plays. All hell can break loose when the Lions lose their discipline and play with hesitation on defense.