The Detroit Lions host the Buffalo Bills this afternoon in a huge matchup. At 12-1, the Lions currently hold the clubhouse lead in the race for the NFC’s top seed. But with the chasing pack in hot pursuit, Detroit cannot afford a slip-up.

The Bills are 10-3, coming off a loss in Los Angeles. Buffalo is chasing the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s one-seed and knows they cannot lose this afternoon.

It is the biggest game of the season for both teams. Many analysts have labelled it a ‘Super Bowl preview.’ It feels like a coin-flip game, but here is how the Detroit Lions can win.

Bring Out the Heavy Weaponry

Per Next Gen Stats, the Buffalo Bills have played with five or more defensive backs on the field 97% of the time through fourteen weeks. Sean McDermott wants his defense to live in Nickel and Dime personnel. The Bills head coach wants more defensive backs on the field to defend the pass.

Subsequently, the Bills line up with fewer big bodies in the tackle box. Football is a game of compromise, and that is the compromise the Bills have made—and it cost them against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens’ two-back formations and multiple tight-end formations put Buffalo’s defense in a bind. Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards and one touchdown. Per Next Gen Stats, Henry’s rush yards-over-expected was 119, and Baltimore ranked fifth in rush EPA for that respective week.

Furthermore, Baltimore running back Justice Hill led the Ravens in receptions against the Bills. The Ravens used bigger personnel, with Patrick Ricard, Charlie Kolar, Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely on the field. Baltimore punished Buffalo’s run defense, and the Lions must attack this run defense early.

Can the Detroit Lions use a fullback or multiple tight ends in condensed formations to pound Buffalo’s defense? The Lions have a ferocious running game led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The backs provide a complementary set of skills.
If coordinator Ben Johnson can find ways of involving Brock Wright and Shane Zylstra or use Dan Skipper as a sixth lineman, the Lions could have the big power to spring their running backs loose.

Detroit must lean on a power run game paired with an explosive perimeter running game. Buffalo found it difficult against the LA Rams when LA’s wideouts became perimeter blockers.

Detroit must get the run-game going with a thunder-and-lightning duo in the backfield. It will help the Lions control the time of possession and keep MVP favorite Josh Allen on the sideline for as much time as possible.

The positive thing about all this is that Lions head coach Dan Campbell also believes in the run game. On Sunday, NFL on CBS reporter Tracy Wolfson confirmed that the Lions want much more from their running game.

Would not be surprised to see a similar game plan from the #Lions as last week. Control the ball and be aggressive when you can to keep Josh Allen off the field. Campbell was not happy with their run game last week, expect a heavy dose of it this time around.

— Tracy Wolfson (@tracywolfson) December 15, 2024

100% Man Coverage? Or Zone?

If you did not know or have been living under a rock, the Detroit Lions like to play a lot of man coverage. That can be dangerous as Josh Allen is a fearless, fierce, bulldozing running quarterback. The Lions have had difficulty defending scrambling quarterbacks throughout Aaron Glenn’s tenure.

The easy answer to the scrambling conundrum is to play more zone coverage and have defenders’ eyes on Allen. But that may give Buffalo’s pass-catchers free reign to find soft spots in the zones.

Detroit will almost certainly have to play a mix of coverages or some more zone coverage that matches man principles. Therefore, Detroit’s linebackers and defensive line must play with pure discipline.

They cannot let Allen escape the pocket and become a battering ram dual-threat quarterback. Eye discipline, identifying the passing concept, and nailing the tackle will be critical for this Lions defense.

Allen is exceptional. He will make some heroic plays, as Patrick Mahomes did last year in Kansas City. The Lions just have to find a way to limit the heroics and make enough disciplined plays to stop Allen from taking over the whole game.

Play One Play At a Time

Dan Campbell preaches this all the time, but it rings truer today. The Lions and their fans must weather adversity and challenging moments today. The players must live each play as its own isolated play and not get too high or too low. These seismic games test character, personality, and courage. The Detroit Lions must display all of these qualities today.